The financial crisis starting this recession is just the smoke of a big, huge fire. While the smoke really bothers firefighters, none of them will be confused on fighting just the smoke: they got to find the focus of the fire.
I hope our policy makers around the world are better firemen than risk experts as they failed to prevent the fire from starting. They failed as risk planners.
The real fire keeps going on steady under and above our feet. It is global warming, climate change, melting of ice caps, melting of glaciers on all mountains around the world, it is unsustainable business practices everywhere. This is the real fire.
Once in a while, like a fire on a jungle, when it disappears from surface after a heavy rain, it keeps burning organic materials, debris, rotten trees and plants, buried on the ground. It works like charcoal, keeping the heat for weeks and months. Large fires on the jungle needs weeks of heavy rain and colder weather to stop the fire.
So, the real fire of our world economy will not be stop on the next decade, because we, each of us, it is a potential and active fire starter, as long as we keep our life style intensive on oil consumption. Even we stop such trend, we have already accumulated enough heat on the sky and oceans, that such heat will create many economic disasters on humanity.
Then my economic forecast is divided in three.
1. HOLD THE HEAT
We all are responsible for not taking action, so mankind as a whole will be affected. No one can feel safe, because if you are not directly affected, your friends, family, relatives, customers, employees, pals, governments, your loved animals and plants, will be affected. Water is going to be scarcer, etc. Social chaos will occur, unemployment will rise, illness and endemic diseases will cause serious troubles around the planet.
2. THE FIREMEN
You are one of the persons understanding the real cause of the economic crisis, and from whatever position in the society, you develop new solutions. Sustainability is a must for you. You work from Science, health, education, technology, social workers, government officers, etc. From any field you contribute to build a new and more sustainable society.
3. THE FIRE STARTERS
These persons are still multitude in society, some because their greed, some for ignorance, some because they like the modern comfort and don't want to understand on a personal basis the great deal of expenses Nature has to do to keep his life style. I believe most is due to a large ignorance, or due to a large mass of people thinking like a teenager, who is concerned about having a good party financed by Mother Nature and mature citizens.
Many of these people are the so called followers, they consume products. They are not really creators. If you create new products more sustainable and this is the trend, they will certainly buy them.
These people will come into chaos, when great natural disasters or large economic crisis or serious epidemics affecting their health, or large wars, may really move their asses from their comfortable coach.
INVESTORS HAVE A GREAT ROLE
Community has much to say. In particular investors who need to channel their investments to build a new civilization. Otherwise the old contaminating companies are going to be anyhow shut down due to international pressure for survival.
We need urgently to fund sustainable and renewable energies. Investors should focus on this field throughout the world at the speed of light. We can't burn more fossil fuels at the scale we do now.
Education must be renewed totally to incorporate a planetary citizenship as human achievement to be gained. Our children and youth needs urgent better education because if we don't prepare them for the critical scenario we are going to face, they are going to suffer so much.
THE FORECAST
Investors investing honestly in an holistic way are going to really benefit from being the pioneers of the new civilization. Some will loose anyway their saving attempting to create new paths, because leaders knows this may happen. But, when a great storm comes nobody will be untouched. So, for some of us, it is much better try to open the route for others and enjoy the process than just stay crying like the rest of the people.
Some investors not understanding the real degree of changes needed, will be a great trouble to build a new society. That is life. But on the critical times we are going to face, when survival of a civilized way of living is going to be in quest for hundred of millions, then polite manners probably are not going to be handy ever. Some people unfortunately pushed by desperation are going to be very violent.
So, I guess Nature and humans will diminish the price of companies and products not meeting sustainability. So, investors holding their interest to the businesses and companies that are increasing unsustainability of the planet and mankind, will suffer strong falls on the prices of their assets. They will loose their wealth.
It is task of all to act soon to fund the new solutions to push strongly ahead the economic activity of sustainable businesses. The economic recovery is feasible for such companies and economies.
Present recession is a good call for living economically saving natural resources. However are policy makers understanding the difference between the smoke of this recession and the real fire of the economic resources of the planet ?
Understanding correctly this challenge, will lead the way to increase employment and economic activity. Otherwise policy makers and investors will deepen the crisis. We could put the fire under the rag, like a fire on the jungle flooded on this case for a rain of dollars from Central Banks and Governments. However, if we don't understand the causes of the real fire, this is going to start again on a year or two, with stronger damages as we will not have enough rain of dollars available, as we used most of them on present crisis.
So, the world economy cycle is something longer than a year, and I am afraid policy makers are using most of our reserves of waters to fight just one emerging flame of the subtle real fire. We can't do that. Real firemen wait until enough materials has been burned to attack the real source of the fire.
So, I hope investors reading this article may take wiser decisions as Governments are not really understanding the scenario. Truly speaking investors neither understood it, because the flames started on their backyard as large corporations and banks came into bankruptcy.
GOVERMENTRUPTCY
But it will be a much serious issue if a large government may be in danger of bankruptcy or governmentruptcy, a new word I hope we don't need to use. But I am afraid some countries will be near such risks. My words shouldn't be taken lightly as USA is having a huge fiscal deficit and the governmental debts of some countries is far beyond the production of the government in relation to the Gross National Products of such states. In some cases the government foreign debt is close to the total national product of such country.
The demand for funds will be so high on the next years from different governments and companies, that some will not be funded totally. So, social unrest will grow. Then political turmoil. Change of governments will be certain. However ruling under scarcity is not a real easy task for any leader. Then clearly, economic troubles of today are at a lower scale of potential troubles for many countries. We are facing the easiest stage of the recession, because countries haven't started social unrest neither governmental changes are due to the present recession.
Developed nations have many resources, but monetary emissions are growing here and there. So, large currency variations are expected to happen. The expectation of the public are critical.
Educated people from the planet is expecting a more sustainable economic development. If world leaders take this path, then they will be backed up by the public and investors. If the governments don't guide their nation toward sustainability they should loose the trust of their fellow citizens and the trust of the international community as well as the financing from investors. As we live in a global and interdependent world, contaminating nations also affect the rest of mankind. So, the sooner such governments are forced to change policies, the better. Or otherwise, their countries are going to be isolated from the international community.
The economic change toward a new civilization is underway. USA and some of the riches countries of the world, can lead this path. However, the HOPE is open to all nations. Because living holistically has many ways. There is not a model. For the contrary, there are many alternatives to live plenty. Any country may find its own path toward sustainability and happiness to its people.
Education, leadership and proper investment are the key elements to put more energy to the already first signs of a new civilization.
This article has been focused on raising the focus on the real economy, not on the smoke of the present financial crisis. If we don't understand the bottom line, then a new fire will start tomorrow, either started by a financial crisis, a health epidemic, a terrible war, a natural disaster, etc.
Humankind and human activity has reached such weight on the planet activity, that our unbalanced way of living can trigger strong reactions from Nature and mankind activity. We have lost the control of natural phenomena. We never had it, but we could rely on natural parameters, on natural cycles and patterns to improve natural species including our own. Human activity has changed nature on such way, that we can not rely on the steady parameters with the same trust we did on the past.
So, we are going to suffer a few decades of unstable activity of Nature, while it limits the action of the human predators. It is going to be hard for all of us. However, we, the creator of this unbalanced society, can help Nature on finding its balance. We are able of doing it. I repeat, it will not prevent some of the perils we will face, because we already pushed the pendulum toward an extreme position and its coming back with the same energy. However, we can build a better society and it may be feasible that some of the strong effects of nature can not affect us so much, if we assist nature on the process.
I do believe strongly that the return to balance of economic activity is going to be guided for more peaceful spirits. More than a new economic development, we are at the preliminary stage of building a new ethics, a new philosophy a new spirituality and a new education. Also a new science and technology strongly related to harmony. When a person breaks down and he faces the peril of death either physically or financially or in love, then the person rebuilds himself with new and firm values. Frequently he feels like having a new life.
I believe, that we humans collectively are going to face great losses on many regards. So, most likely humans, as a whole, will build a new way of life. Not guided by some en lighted spirit or by a new Messiah - although this could help - but guided by the proper spirit of humankind. Human will and human love will push our intelligent efforts toward a better society altogether understanding that Natural creatures are part of our own life.
So, my world economy forecast is gray for the next years as long as investors and governments don't take the right decisions toward living holistically and on a sustainable way. It may seem we are coming out of the recession because we see a white smoke instead the dark smoke, just because we are just are dumping enough water to clear the dark smoke, but maybe we are not really dealing with the recession itself.
If any company, or any investor or any government take harmonic decisions, then they will face a much better future. Then my economic forecast for such company, investor, government and economy are clearly optimistic.
Available for Consulting if you need a second thought before investing.
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Cel 56-9-8314-9679ECONOMY FORECAST FOR YEAR 2009 AND THE NEXT DECADE
